| 2009-10 Season Preview: Philadelphia 76ers Authored by Andrew Perna - October 8, 2009 - 1:55 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: 1.0, 15th
Key Additions: Rodney Carney, Jason Kapono, Primoz Brezec
Key Subtractions: Andre Miller, Reggie Evans
Key Rookies: Jrue Holiday
Probable Starters: Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert
Point Guard: We’ll start with the big one. If you read something about the 76ers this summer, it probably focused on the point guard position, which is almost as unstable as the Phillies’ closer situation. Gone is Andre Miller (to Portland via free agency) and the depth chart reads like this: Lou Williams, Royal Ivey and rookie Jrue Holiday.
Williams is really a combo guard, but the 76ers will give him plenty of time as their offensive quarterback. Ivey is a journeyman in nearly every sense of the word, having playing for three teams in five seasons with career a career PER of 8.6 and has typically been a 13 minute per night player. Holiday clearly has the most promise, but he’s only 19 and had to play out of position at shooting guard while sharing the UCLA backcourt with Darren Collison. In addition, there have been whispers that he’s struggled to find his way in practice.
Wiliams is very athletic, but it’s obvious that Philadelphia is hoping Holiday can be their point guard of the future. Williams has the size for the role, but doesn’t see the floor as well as you’d like your ball-handler to and he’ll be a steep drop off from Andre Miller in that department. Ivey will bring strong defense, but isn’t someone I’d want playing more than 10 minutes or so for my team.
Holiday dropped to Philadelphia with the 17th overall pick, a huge score for general manager Ed Stefanski and the City of Brotherly Love. He has tremendous upside and was rated very highly on a number of mock drafts. In fact, RealGM’s Chris Reina had Holiday going to the Kings with the fourth selection.
Stefanski appears willing to give Holiday a shot. “Jrue will show us what type of time he can handle starting with training camp and during the season,” the GM told me last month. “He will get a chance to compete for minutes. It will be Coach [Eddie] Jordan's call.”
Swingmen: The 76ers have their best depth on the wings, with a group of talented players that possess varying skill sets. Andre Iguodala is a borderline All-Star and many see Thaddeus Young on that path as well.
Young, a two-year veteran, just became a legal drinker this June. He’s one of the league’s most athletic players and his age will allow him at least another season or two to grow leaps and bounds on the floor. He has been a key cog in Philadelphia’s rotation since his first game, but his role grew vastly last season. He was on the floor nearly 66% of the time, averaging 15.3 points and 4.2 rebounds. In addition, his net point per 100 possessions was +9.6 in 2008-09.
Iguodala wasn’t a scorer when he entered the league, but is starting to develop more of a varied offensive game. His jump shot still isn’t overly reliable and he has always been at his best when attacking the basket, but the former Wildcat has become a nice second option.
Of course, being a second option wasn’t even a possibility before Elton Brand arrived in Philadelphia, or after the multi-time All-Star was lost due to injury last season. Iggy is still pretty young himself (25), but will be expected to show continued improve as he enters his sixth NBA season. He can handle the ball, rebound and defend, while also scoring nearly twenty a game. It’s hard to ask for much more.
The 76ers added Jason Kapono, who immediately becomes their best shooter, to their bench. Philadelphia ranked dead last in three-point shooting percentage last season (32%), making the acquisition of a career 45% shooter from beyond the arc vital.
Rodney Carney and Willie Green will round out the swingman rotation. Carney isn’t a very good shooter, but his height and jumping ability make him a decent rebounder for a guy his size. He played his first two seasons in Philadelphia, making him at least familiar with some of his teammates and the organization.
Frontcourt: Elton Brand’s first season with the 76ers was an absolute disaster. Not only did he struggle to fit into the team’s offense early on, posting the lowest numbers of his career, but he ended up missing 53 games with a shoulder injury. He’s played in fewer than 40 games over the last two seasons, which you can look at one of two ways. He was reliable through the first eight seasons of his career, which means, provided he remains healthy, he should be refreshed with less tread on his tires than the average 10-year veteran.
On the other hand, a pessimist will call Brand injury-prone, which isn’t without warrant when you consider the Achilles and shoulder injuries of the last two seasons. They’ll also point to the contract Stefanski gave Brand coming off an eight-game season. With that said, a health Brand means the 76ers will add a 20 and 10 guy to their lineup. He should also have success under Eddie Jordan, who runs a system more suited for him than what Maurice Cheeks and Tony DiLeo ran.
He’s small for a power forward, but uses his body better than almost anyone in the league. As important as it is for Philadelphia to find a solution at point guard, Brand’s health and effectiveness is the key to their season. Take Brand out of the lineup and they can still make the playoffs, but they aren’t going to make it past the first round without a reliable force in the paint on both ends of the floor.
Samuel Dalembert doesn’t look like the team’s long-term option at center. He’s young, but inconsistent and hasn’t looked (or sounded) completely happy in Philadelphia for quite some time. He’s also dealing with a right shoulder injury, which occurred at the end of last season. If he’s hurting and unfocused, we could see another disappointing season from the Haitian.
After averaging a double-double in 2007-08, Dalembert regressed quite a bit last year. He’s appeared in 82 games in each of the last three seasons, but you’d like to get more than 6.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per night from a guy that makes more than $12 million. His net points per 100 possessions was +3.4 last season, fourth on the team. His offensive game is very dull and it’s strange that a guy of his height, with his wingspan, would have 17% of his shots around the rim rejected and a quickly dropping True Shooting Percentage that fell to .535 last season.
Forecast: If the 76ers want to take the next step and earn homecourt advantage in the first round, they’ll need to hang with the likes of the Raptors, Hawks and Heat. If Brand is healthy and returns to his 20 and 10 ways, Philadelphia can accomplish that easily, even without a veteran, established presence at point guard. They are still very young, but guys like Williams and Young have numerous important games under their belts. A win total in the mid-40s shouldn’t be a problem, but it remains to be seen if that will be enough to finish just behind Boston, Orlando and Cleveland.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
